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New York 2017 ICSC Download

After spending 3 days at the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)’s 2nd largest show in the world in New York City last week and having a week to dig out from the hundreds of emails, process the potential for new business, and follow up on last week’s meetings, I thought I would share some insight from the show and overall where the industry seems to be today.

There were many bright spots curating throughout the show, at a formal dinner I hosted, and all around the cocktail parties. These include the seemingly inevitable passage of some portion of the first tax reform in 30 years in the US, the early results of Black Friday and the overall optimism in the market. As I write this blog, I’m reading an article about retail sales jumping in the month of November…this is good news. I think something near a “settling in” is occurring in the industry, an understanding that the way people shop and how people live has changed, not ‘is changing’. No longer is news of a regional mall anchor’s closure triggering unnecessary panic or downward speculation, nor is the news about a 10-year-old lifestyle center going through a redevelopment and repurposing surprising…To me it’s more exciting and here is why; in a free market industry such as real estate no developer, broker, or tenant dictates how the market trades…only the market can. And the “market” is the consumer. The ‘changes” that are occurring are being responded to by the market with intuitive thinking and outside-the-box ideas. For the first time in the internet era, we are starting to ‘catch up’ on technology and instead of chasing the change are now building on this expectation in all aspects of our industry.

I hosted a dinner, had dozens of meetings, hopped around cocktail parties, shook a lot of hands, reconnected with old friends, and spent time with current ones….This show has always been a tremendous opportunity to reach the masses in a few short days, as long as you can handle the 18 hour days!

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The “Consolidation Affect”

Perhaps consolidation is something not discussed as much as it should be, or it is just something that we’ve softened to, like the continuance of bankruptcy filings. However, I find that this ongoing trend of the real estate industry has long lasting affects for both the overall market, and for the general consumer.

One theme is consistent; the larger companies continue to grasp at a growth mechanism that is centered around acquiring its rivals or competitors as opposed to ongoing growth of its own brand.

Think about this, in the first 8 months of 2017 Amazon bought Whole Foods, Walmart bought Bonobos and jet.com, Coach bought Kate Spade, Michael Kors bought Jimmy Choo, Camping World bought Gander Mountain, and, a few weeks ago, Walgreens Boots Alliance obtained federal approval to purchase over 1,900 Rite Aid Pharmacy stores, a deal that has been in the works for several years. Inevitably, some of these consolidations will create markets that will be over-stored and force some retailers to consider consolidating even further to just 1 brick and mortar presence in each market. I’m not predicting this will create a massive wave of vacancies, but it will certainly be a large part of deal flow in all sectors of commercial real estate in the future.

While consolidation is not something new, the uniqueness of today’s narrative is that it now includes brick and mortar companies acquiring online only retailers. If you would have said just 5 years ago that Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, would purchase an independent online retailer such as jet.com, no one would have believed it.

Consolidation has never been viewed as an industry disruptor, and in many cases in the past the industry has praised these events. It was assumed that it gave retail different channels that they did not previously have, but how will this affect the industry overall? Over the next decade, consolidation will certainly be large part of the evolution of retail.

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SEARS IS A “GOOD” THING!

How many times have we heard of a Kmart or Sears store closing, potentially closing, or looking like a rag? It may be the most obvious topic in retail; Sears is in midst of a constant “store closing list”, the likes of which we have never seen before in retail. Perhaps Blockbuster Video was most like the slow demise we’re witnessing. However, Sears continues to have a heartbeat, mainly due to their REIT spinoff, Seritage, as well as their CEO’s continued equity injections to keep the retailer from being in default from its obligations. While no one quite knows the future of Sears, I don’t think anyone believes a turn-around is possible. The brand is just too beat down and there are too many other places to get what Sears sells.

Now that we have established the most obvious conclusion in retail, how does this slow demise affect the market? One word, “GOOD”! Of the 40-plus Sears I have been in or driven past not one of them proved to be the highest and best use of the Property, thus affecting the surrounding retail in many cases. The continued velocity of redevelopment, repurposing, and redevising of the Sears/Kmart buildings is fueling many of these markets and centers resurgence. Look at Kings Plaza in Brooklyn; a massive block box that was once Sears will be repurposed as a multi-tenant shopping and dining experience.

The real question is what will we do when Sears is gone??? Most would agree that if they can maintain a viable business, this “tap in to our real estate” game plan could go on for 20 years. It took Sears nearly 50 years to get to the portfolio they have today. Not ever has there been a tenant with so many stores in so many strong markets, with so much potential being so underutilized. Perhaps you could look back at the old school regional brands such as Bradlees, but most would agree this has not been seen before in retail. It would be interesting to know of all U.S. retail absorption last year, what percentage involved a former Sears or Kmart. In my world, it has contributed to A LOT of deals and will continue to do so for many, many years to come.

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The Bennett Blog Begins…

Welcome to the Bennett Blog…

This is why you should listen….

I formed Bennett Realty just over a year ago after spending the past 12+ years slugging through the commercial real estate industry, including working at small and big companies as a broker, starting a brokerage company with partners most recently, and developing properties during this time. While I achieved much success, I wasn’t happy. Not only did I no longer want to be in an operating partnership, I wanted a platform where I can do both brokerage and development in a boutique setting with a hands-on-approach, a model not commonly seen and perhaps doing the complete opposite of what is perceived as the “norm”….for these same reasons, we are launching the Bennett Blog.

I am not a big “poster” on social media and I don’t provide minute by minute updates of what I am doing throughout the day on Facebook or LinkedIn like the rest of the world but I have accepted that it is a big part of how people communicate and ultimately arrive at decisions about many things. The scary thing is that most of the things that are posted are not only baseless with bottomless thoughts, they are irrelevant to what I want to read so I’m here to express some thoughts about the real estate industry from a brokerage and development perspective with the main purpose to challenge the norm and candidly expose many of these inaccurate posting or news stories. If you would have asked me just a couple months ago if I would ever write a blog I would have laughed and said “who has time for that?”….but, I’m tired of reading about topics by “experts” who have not spent a day in the trenches of this business like I have. They haven’t seen the bottom and clawed their way up or become self-made in an industry that is perhaps the last frontier in the white-collar side of business. My intention for this blog to challenge much of what people say about the commercial real estate industry, get some things off my chest, and, as my SEO guy tells me, perhaps get my company greater exposure on the web…Being Normal Sucks!

Hope you enjoy this

Tyler Bennett
President/Founder
Bennett Realty Group, LLC

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